FCI-G reconstruction

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Independent public-input reconstruction

Financial conditions, between Board prints.

A daily estimate of the Federal Reserve Board’s next monthly Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth reading, anchored to the latest published decomposition.

Updated 29 Sep 2026 · 11:40 ET
Latest inputs through 28 Sep, with mixed daily, weekly and monthly frequencies.
Expected Sep. 30 print
−0.863
Still a growth tailwind · negative values support year-ahead growth
From Aug. official
+0.023
Higher means tighter financial conditions
68% tracking band
−0.896–−0.829
Proxy tracking error, not full predictive uncertainty
Latest Board print
−0.886
31 Aug 2026 reference date

FCI-G progression in 2026

Published Board data through August; daily reconstructed path through September.

Published Reconstruction
+0.207tightening from January’s official value to the September estimate
−0.913 to −0.845range of the September latest-vintage reconstruction
Flat Sep. 28–29no new contributing tail observation changed the estimate

What moved the estimate

Contribution change from the August official decomposition. Right tightens; left eases.

Tightening contribution Easing contribution

Next expected publication

30 Oct

for the 30 Sep 2026 reference date

The regular date falls inside the Oct. 17–29 FOMC communications blackout. Oct. 30 is inferred until the Board posts it.

0.02736-print MAE
0.033centered RMSE
−0.005mean-error adjustment

Input freshness

The monthly model is marked forward with the newest available public observations.

How to read the reconstruction

Signal

Positive FCI-G values are estimated headwinds to year-ahead GDP growth; negative values are tailwinds. A move higher is a tightening, even when the level remains below zero.

Update method

Each component starts at the latest Board-published level. Public inputs are transformed with the Board’s first 12 quarterly multipliers, and their target-month change is added to that anchor. A rolling 36-print mean error calibrates the total.

Important limits

  • Freddie Mac mortgages proxy for Optimal Blue; the S&P 500 proxies for the Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index.
  • The pre–29 Sep daily path is reconstructed with the latest vintage, not archived real-time data.
  • Missing target-period values carry forward; the pending Zillow month uses recent monthly log growth.
Primary sources and replication materials