{
  "as_of": "2026-09-29",
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-29T15:40:46.597402+00:00",
  "latest_official": {
    "reference_date": "2026-08-31",
    "value": -0.885853372722202
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  "next_print": {
    "reference_date": "2026-09-30",
    "estimate": -0.8628092593368792,
    "change_from_latest_official": 0.02304411338532275,
    "tracking_band_68": [-0.8962909461997638, -0.8293275724739947],
    "tracking_band_90": [-0.9178866342263243, -0.8077318844474342],
    "expected_release_date": "2026-10-30",
    "regular_release_date": "2026-10-20",
    "release_note": "The regular date falls inside the Oct. 17–29 FOMC communications blackout; Oct. 30 is an inferred publication date until the Board posts it."
  },
  "calibration": {
    "months": 36,
    "bias": -0.005484763891226473,
    "mae": 0.02743865096329744,
    "tracking_rmse": 0.03348168686288456,
    "start": "2023-09-29",
    "end": "2026-08-31"
  },
  "official_ytd": [
    {"date": "2026-01-30", "value": -1.07015171485532},
    {"date": "2026-02-27", "value": -1.11498561234709},
    {"date": "2026-03-31", "value": -0.923186061437596},
    {"date": "2026-04-30", "value": -1.09745815791207},
    {"date": "2026-05-29", "value": -1.1218075197339},
    {"date": "2026-06-30", "value": -0.992934905003779},
    {"date": "2026-07-31", "value": -0.877331316404464},
    {"date": "2026-08-31", "value": -0.885853372722202}
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  "estimated_daily": [
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    {"date": "2026-09-01", "value": -0.8768096841407184},
    {"date": "2026-09-02", "value": -0.8881881543574196},
    {"date": "2026-09-03", "value": -0.9126330534400489},
    {"date": "2026-09-04", "value": -0.9050536202921329},
    {"date": "2026-09-05", "value": -0.9050536202921329},
    {"date": "2026-09-06", "value": -0.9050536202921329},
    {"date": "2026-09-07", "value": -0.9050536202921329},
    {"date": "2026-09-08", "value": -0.8934012456486017},
    {"date": "2026-09-09", "value": -0.8826054589773664},
    {"date": "2026-09-10", "value": -0.8640037582874701},
    {"date": "2026-09-11", "value": -0.880593215973327},
    {"date": "2026-09-12", "value": -0.880593215973327},
    {"date": "2026-09-13", "value": -0.880593215973327},
    {"date": "2026-09-14", "value": -0.8661993122402777},
    {"date": "2026-09-15", "value": -0.8549118293284851},
    {"date": "2026-09-16", "value": -0.8451136467503636},
    {"date": "2026-09-17", "value": -0.8572493857539468},
    {"date": "2026-09-18", "value": -0.8591976020140131},
    {"date": "2026-09-19", "value": -0.8591976020140131},
    {"date": "2026-09-20", "value": -0.8591976020140131},
    {"date": "2026-09-21", "value": -0.8916803509838057},
    {"date": "2026-09-22", "value": -0.8908205512908636},
    {"date": "2026-09-23", "value": -0.8718015766080575},
    {"date": "2026-09-24", "value": -0.8681968460353212},
    {"date": "2026-09-25", "value": -0.8796389206133348},
    {"date": "2026-09-26", "value": -0.8796389206133348},
    {"date": "2026-09-27", "value": -0.8796389206133348},
    {"date": "2026-09-28", "value": -0.8628092593368792},
    {"date": "2026-09-29", "value": -0.8628092593368792},
    {"date": "2026-09-30", "value": -0.8628092593368792}
  ],
  "components": [
    {"name": "Mortgage rate", "official": 0.0294628414118125, "change": 0.02109423996104992, "estimate": 0.050557081372862425, "input": "Freddie Mac MORTGAGE30US", "proxy": true},
    {"name": "BBB spread", "official": -0.0461403821623914, "change": 0.013328362607415607, "estimate": -0.03281201955497579, "input": "ICE BofA BBB + Moody’s Baa fallback", "proxy": false},
    {"name": "Federal funds rate", "official": -0.0462532731814841, "change": 0.009542045110783777, "estimate": -0.036711228070700326, "input": "FRED DFF", "proxy": false},
    {"name": "10-year Treasury", "official": -0.0048989994087625, "change": 0.0004913233800526023, "estimate": -0.0044076760287098974, "input": "Board SVENPY10 + DGS10 tail", "proxy": false},
    {"name": "House prices", "official": -0.0031207204266105, "change": -0.0016079356621825115, "estimate": -0.0047286560887930115, "input": "Zillow USAUCSFRCONDOSMSAMID", "proxy": false},
    {"name": "Dollar", "official": -0.112697265409634, "change": -0.005498586787105367, "estimate": -0.11819585219673936, "input": "FRED DTWEXBGS", "proxy": false},
    {"name": "Stock market", "official": -0.702205573545132, "change": -0.00882057133346481, "estimate": -0.7110261448785968, "input": "S&P 500", "proxy": true}
  ],
  "latest_input_dates": [
    {"label": "Fed funds", "series": "DFF", "date": "2026-09-25", "cadence": "daily"},
    {"label": "10-year tail", "series": "DGS10", "date": "2026-09-25", "cadence": "daily"},
    {"label": "Mortgage", "series": "MORTGAGE30US", "date": "2026-09-24", "cadence": "weekly", "proxy": true},
    {"label": "BBB spread", "series": "BAMLC0A4CBBBEY", "date": "2026-09-28", "cadence": "daily"},
    {"label": "Baa fallback", "series": "DBAA", "date": "2026-09-28", "cadence": "daily"},
    {"label": "Equities", "series": "SP500", "date": "2026-09-28", "cadence": "daily", "proxy": true},
    {"label": "House prices", "series": "Zillow", "date": "2026-08-01", "cadence": "monthly"},
    {"label": "Dollar", "series": "DTWEXBGS", "date": "2026-09-25", "cadence": "daily"},
    {"label": "Board 10-year", "series": "SVENPY10", "date": "2026-09-18", "cadence": "weekly"}
  ],
  "sources": {
    "methodology": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/a-new-index-to-measure-us-financial-conditions-20230630.html",
    "monthly_csv": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/fci_g_public_monthly_3yr.csv",
    "board_code": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/public_fci_publicrelease.zip",
    "yield_curve": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/yield-curve-tables/feds200628.csv",
    "fomc_calendar": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm"
  }
}